A rapid decline in U.S. export competitiveness for manufactures is having game-changing consequences for the international trade and financial systems. U.S. leadership capability has been reduced for pursuing a more open, nondiscriminatory trading system while trade relationships are shifting from the rules-based multilateral World Trade Organization to a spreading network of preferential bilateral and regional trade agreements.
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- The geographic composition of trade in manufactures changed radically between 2000 and 2013. The U.S. share of global exports declined from 19% to 12% while the Chinese share soared from 7% to 23%
- The U.S. deficit in manufactures almost doubled from 2009 to $562 billion in 2014, while the Chinese surplus rose to $1 trillion
- Transition from the dollarized financial system to some form of multi–key currency relationship is projected as the share of world trade financed in dollars drops below 50%
Συνέχεια
The Decline of U.S. Export Competitiveness for Manufactures and Its Consequences for the World Economic OrderBy Ernest H. Preeg
Senior Advisor for International Trade and Finance
Senior Advisor for International Trade and Finance
Σημείωση
The post-dollarized financial world would be a multi–key currency relationship centered on the IMF reserve currency grouping—the dollar, euro, yen, sterling, and renminbi as it moves toward convertibility—broadly complemented by other major trading nations also in compliance with IMF exchange rate obligations. It is uncertain, however, how this multi-currency relationship would play out during the initial years of transition.